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Medicare for the first time has estimated that a new Alzheimer’s treatment could cost the program billions of dollars by next year — well beyond what Wall Street or even the drug’s manufacturer has projected — according to a document obtained by STAT.

Medicare’s actuaries expect the drug Leqembi, made by the Japanese drugmaker Eisai and sold in partnership with Biogen, to cost the traditional Medicare program around $550 million in 2024, and the entire Medicare program $3.5 billion in 2025, a spokesperson for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services confirmed to STAT. That projection forecasts a large increase in uptake over the next year and a half.

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The estimate was buried in a new CMS document that addressed questions about next year’s payments for Medicare Advantage plans, which cover more than 33 million people and serve as the alternative to the traditional Medicare program.

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